One Nation could win as many as 36 seats if an election were held today, becoming the official opposition party, according to a new poll that shows they are within 5 per cent of Labor’s primary vote.
The DemosAU survey of 1933 voters from January 13 to 21 — conducted before last week’s Coalition split — showed One Nation continues to surge with a primary vote of 24 per cent, Labor on 30 per cent, the Coalition on 21 per cent, the Greens on 13 per cent and others on 12 per cent.
One Nation and Labor both lifted their primary vote by 1 percentage point compared with DemosAU’s previous poll in early January, while the Coalition slipped 2 points.
More Australians would prefer Pauline Hanson (26 per cent) as Prime Minister over Liberal leader Sussan Ley (16 per cent), although Anthony Albanese led comfortably on 36 per cent.
But the One Nation leader had a net positivity rating of minus 5 per cent, compared with Mr Albanese on minus 14 per cent and Ms Ley on minus 18 per cent.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said if the results were replicated at an election, Labor would win comfortably, while One Nation would likely become the largest opposition party and therefore become the official opposition.
Pauline Hanson joins an Australia Day march in Brisbane. Picture: Liam Kidston/NewsWire
A seat projection produced by the polling firm found Labor would win 87-95 seats, One Nation 29-36 seats, the Liberals 9-18 seats, Nationals 1-5 seats, Greens 0-2 seats and others 6-11 seats.
The projection was based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, using 20,000 simulations and assuming uniform national swings since DemosAU’s October/November MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model.
“These projections demonstrate the dominance of Labor, given the current fragmentation on the right of Australian politics,” Mr Hasanakos said in a statement.
“With a primary of 30 per cent, the ALP would be on track for a similar majority to the one they currently hold. Meanwhile, One Nation would emerge as clearly the second largest party, mostly by taking seats off the former Coalition parties.”
Mr Hasanakos said One Nation’s strongest cohorts were those with a high school level education, those living in regional and rural areas and those aged over 55.
These are cohorts where the Coalition has typically been strongest in recent decades, which explains why the One Nation surge has had such an impact on the primary votes of the Liberals and Nationals.
Opposition leader Sussan Ley. Picture: Gaye Gerard/NewsWire
Mr Hasanakos said that, contrary to some reporting, there was little to no gender divide in terms of support for One Nation.
“Over several polls, we’ve seen One Nation’s support among women to be almost as high as its support among men,” he said.
“The current poll shows 24 per cent of women would vote for One Nation, compared to 25 per cent of men. This contrasts with the picture in other countries, where there has been a clearer divide in support for populist right wing parties among men and women.”
DemosAU’s survey had an effective margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent for primary votes.
On Monday, Ms Hanson took to the stage at an Australia Day rally in Brisbane to thunderous applause from supporters.
Addressing the crowd, Ms Hanson rejected climate change concerns, praised Australia’s mining and manufacturing sectors, and said she had spent her political career “calling this country back together”.
“I have taken so much pride in my country … all I’ve ever done my whole political life is call this country back together,” she said.
She warned against newly passed hate speech laws introduced in the wake of the Bondi Beach terror attack, arguing they could be used to silence minor parties and restrict debate on immigration and multiculturalism.
“We can never give up our freedom of speech … I will not let them stop me. I will keep going,” she said.
The One Nation leader was met with thunderous applause. Picture: Liam Kidston/NewsWire
Ms Hanson told supporters her role was to “fight for you” and accused other politicians of failing to represent everyday Australians.
Turning her fire on the Prime Minister, she blamed Mr Albanese for mass migration and labelled him “the worst prime minister I have ever seen”.
She urged the crowd to back One Nation at the next federal election, saying she wanted more seats in parliament so she could “take it up to them”, scrutinise government spending, and push to revive manufacturing while winding back climate policies.
Ms Hanson ended her speech by calling for unity, telling supporters Australia belonged to everyone who chose it as home, provided they embraced Australian values.
“All I’ve ever done is call for equality for all Australians. Pull us together — whether you’re born here or you’ve migrated,” she said.
DemosAU’s MRP model last year showed one in five 2025 Coalition voters had switched to One Nation. DemosAU’s January 5-6 poll, although with a smaller sample of 1027 voters, showed that figure had risen to nearly one in three, while among Labor voters, just over one in 10 (11 per cent) had switched support for One Nation.
The projection, which was based on a primary vote for One Nation of 17 per cent, predicted the minor party could win 12 seats if an election were held then, overtaking the Nationals to become the third biggest party.
One Nation was behind but could win in another six marginal seats, the analysis found.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire
The October-November MRP model showed One Nation would win Capricornia, Flynn and Wright in Queensland, held by Nationals Michelle Landry and Colin Boyce and Liberal Scott Buchholz respectively.
One Nation would also be likely to pick up the Nationals’ seats of Hinkler and Wide Bay in Queensland — held by David Batt and Llew O’Brien — and Lyne, Parkes and Riverina in NSW, held by Alison Penfold, Jamie Chaffey and Michael McCormack.
Marginal seats which were too close to call but where One Nation was ahead included Calare in NSW — held by former National turned independent Andrew Gee — Liberal leadership hopeful Andrew Hastie’s WA seat of Canning, Grey in South Australia, held by Liberal Tom Venning, and Groom in Queensland, held by Liberal Garth Hamilton.
One Nation was behind but could win in another six marginal seats — including Nationals leader David Littleproud’s enormous outback Queensland electorate of Maranoa and Andrew Willcox’s Mackay seat of Dawson.
The Queensland seats of Forde, held by Labor’s Rowan Holzberger, and Longman, held by Liberal Terry Young, were also within striking distance of One Nation, as were former Liberal Senator Ben Small’s southwest WA seat of Forrest and Hunter in NSW, held Labor’s Dan Repacholi.
Other surveys also show rising support for the minor party.
Last week, a shock Newspoll showed One Nation overtaking the Coalition with a primary vote of 22 per cent — the first time in Australia’s history that a minor party has polled higher than one of the majors.
The combined primary vote for the Coalition is now a record low of 53 per cent, according to Newspoll, with 47 per cent of Australians now backing One Nation, the Greens, independents and other minor parties.
Labor’s two-party preferred lead over the Coalition has fallen back to 55-45, mirroring the results of last May’s election.
In its January 8 poll, DemosAU gave the two-party-preferred lead to Labor of 52-48 against the Coalition — but its analysis suggested Labor and One Nation would be tied at 50-50 in a two-party-preferred match-up.
This is because Coalition preference flows to One Nation are stronger than One Nation preference flows to the Coalition, according to Mr Hasanakos.
A Freshwater poll, published in the Herald Sun last week, showed concerns over immigration and crime were fuelling the surge in support for the minor party.
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