The Liberal Party is “running out of tarmac” to convince voters to support them, according to one seasoned pollster, following Saturday’s historic by-election loss to One Nation in Farrer.
Kos Samaras, from polling firm Redbridge Group Australia, warned the party of Menzies faced an electoral wipeout if it couldn’t get the backing of voters in urban areas.
Speaking with the John Curtin Research Centre, Mr Samaras said: “You cannot live in the Lodge as Prime Minister without winning Melbourne and Sydney. And you cannot win Melbourne and Sydney without the Indian and Chinese diasporas. Full stop.”
One Nation’s David Farley cruised to victory in the Farrer by-election on Saturday Picture: Richard Dobson
The comments come after One Nation candidate David Farley cruised to victory in Farrer with 57 per cent of the vote. Independent Michelle Milthorpe came a distant second with roughly 42 per cent while the Liberal’s Rassia Butkowski, who was trying to succeed Sussan Ley, who quit after losing the leadership, won less than 12 per cent of the primary vote. Labor did not run a candidate.
It was One Nation’s first successful contest for a lower house seat since its founding in 1997.
Mr Samaras said a large number of urban voters are Chinese or Indian Australians and are not only younger – with a median age of 36 – but they also outnumber British expats, who tend to be older.
He said: “If you are lining yourself with the constituencies of those who either were born in the UK and they’ve migrated here and you’ve decided on a political strategy that is not going to be focused on these other cohorts we’ve been talking about, you’re going to run out of tarmac,” he said.
“You have one cohort that’s growing; starting families, starting businesses, becoming the new Australia and will shape the political landscape for years to come. And another one that’s actually phasing out. Again, the story of the Liberal Party.”
‘Australians are not happy’
Paul Smith, director of public data and affairs at YouGov, told news.com.au the Farrer by-election result reflected recent polling trends: that Australians – especially working-class Aussies – feel the major parties don’t represent them.
“It’s very clear that One Nation has now consumed more of the former Liberal Coalition vote and this is likely to be a permanent phenomenon,” he said before adding Pauline Hanson’s party would struggle to compete in cities and towns where he said elections are “won or lost”.
“One Nation are well-placed to represent Australians in rural areas that are not doing well economically, but they are not so well-placed to speak to a majority of Australians who live in urban Australia,” Mr Smith said.
Regardless, the Farrer result showed One Nation had become the “alternative party” in Australian politics, according to the election guru.
Dr Kevin Bonham said the shocking result showed Coalition voters were ditching the party in droves for One Nation. He also said some voters were peeved by Ms Ley’s ousting as opposition leader.
He told news.com.au: “It’s a disastrously bad vote for the Liberal Party. It’s even worse than was expected. There’s no appeal for their brand in this particular contest. In by-elections, you usually see a reaction against the government. In this one, it’s a reaction against the establishment more broadly.”
He said One Nation wasn’t just a threat to right-wing parties and pointed to March’s state election in South Australia where One Nation garnered a larger-than-expected share of votes in Labor strongholds like North Adelaide.
“The suggestion is that if One Nation can be competitive in seats where Labor is dominant and the Labor brand isn’t in a good condition – in particular in Victoria during the state election and possibly federally – they’re going to be a more serious threat.”
‘Cross the great divide’
Paul Williams, an associate professor at Griffith University, echoed those sentiments.
He said the Farrer result had “limited” implications for federal politics but pointed emerging trend. He said: “Farrer is not Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth, but it’s not totally unrepresentative either. So, do the coalition parties have a right to be alarmed? Of course, they should and they are panicked.”
Kos Samaras said the Liberal Party faced electoral oblivion. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
Paul Williams says Aussie voters have ‘crossed the great divide’. Picture: Griffith University
The election analyst believes if a General Election were held this Saturday, the Coalition could lose regional seats in Victoria, Queensland and New South Wales. He said Barnaby Joyce’s defection to One Nation made seats like Park and New England in rural New South Wales winnable for the party. He thinks seats west of Toowoomba in Queensland were a “fertile hunting ground” for One Nation while safe Nationals seats like Maranoa, currently held by former Nats leader, David Littleproud, were also up for grabs.
Mr Williams also issued a stark warning to pollsters who think One Nation won’t do well in demographically diverse urban areas like Sydney or Melbourne.
“That’s the traditional thinking, that’s the received wisdom, but I think we’ve moved on from that. I think One Nation would be scoring double digits in urban seats,” he said.
“They were scoring two to three percentage points in urban seats. That in Brisbane now would be double digits. It would easily be double digits and some seats higher.”
He said voters had “crossed that great divide” into populist politics because of pressures like the rising cost-of-living, which he said forced struggling families to choose between buying their children medicine and putting food on the table.
Mr Williams said these voters lived in outer suburbs and regions. He also said One Nation enjoyed the “bandwagon effect,” which is when voters support a candidate or a party simply because they appear to be gaining popularity.
He said: “I was talking to someone yesterday and the way they said it was very apt. We’ve crossed the threshold where it’s no longer embarrassing to support Pauline Hanson. It used to be 12 months ago. A lot of people were embarrassed by her wearing the Burka in the Senate but there is no single tipping point.”
He added, “I think it’s wrong for us to say the Bondi shooting was the tipping point. But it was a tipping point and there have been a number of tipping points. That, coupled with housing and the cost-of-living and a whole range of other things has made it no longer embarrassing. I think we crossed the bandwagon effect in Christmas last year.”