US negotiators are being played by Iran and appear to be weaker than most of us realise, an Aussie expert has suggested.
Jane Hardy, who was a diplomat for 33 years, exclusively told news.com.au negotiations between Washington DC and Tehran have barely shifted since mid June.
Earlier today, the US revealed it had launched fresh strikes against Iran hours after three tankers were attacked en route through the Strait of Hormuz.
It comes amid ongoing negotiations to end the war between the two nations, with peace talks on hold for the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Meanwhile, Ms Hardy said the outlook of the US striking a favourable deal is looking bleaker by the day
“I think [for] a couple of weeks [to have passed], there should have been more progress by now. It’s clear to me that Iran’s view of what’s happening is different to that of the US and that the US is now in a precarious position because it,” she said.
“Mr Trump clearly wants the Strait of Hormuz to be completely opened and to end the war and to reduce the price of crude oil that’s coming out of that region. But it’s not happening.”
Ms Hardy, whose postings included stints in Washington DC and Malaysia and dealing directly with North Korea, said recent threats by President Donald Trump to strike Iran were signs of weakness.
Donald Trump is growing increasingly desperate for a deal. Picture: AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson
“Ordinary people might think, ‘good, he’s being tough’, but actually, the Iranians know that he’s actually in a very weak position … They [the US] wouldn’t have to do that if they were making progress on the two issues, the Strait of Hormuz opening and, of course, the nuclear question.”
Ms Hardy’s comments come after Iranian officials travelled to the Qatari capital Doha on July 1 to kick off technical discussions with the Middle Eastern country’s mediators on a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program.
This directly contradicted a claim by Mr Trump that direct talks with American negotiators would take place instead.
US President Donald Trump. Picture: Burak Kara/Getty Images
Iran marked the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father as its supreme leader with a new barrage of missiles against Israel and the Gulf states on March 9. Picture: Amir Kholousi/ISNA/AFP
‘Not a wise move’
Ms Hardy said the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran to kick start peace negotiations was a huge win for Tehran.
She said Iran’s pledge not to procure or develop a nuclear weapon was nothing new and its only real concession to “downblend” a stockpile of enriched uranium would be difficult for international inspectors to monitor.
She said the US in return gave Iran “several major concessions”, such as lifting the naval blockade and economic sanctions against Tehran and allowing the rogue regime to sell oil on the open market. Washington DC has also promised to unfreeze billions of dollars worth of Iranian assets.
The Strait of Hormuz was Iran’s trump card, Mr Hardy suggested. Picture: AFP
These were huge wins for Iran, which they would use to steer upcoming nuclear talks into their favour, Ms Hardy suggested.
“Iran could actually play out any one of [the concessions] at any time and just say, ‘Well, the talks are not going to proceed because you haven’t done what you promised in terms of overseas funds, lifting of sanctions, naval blockades’, or whatever it is.”
She also said Mr Trump’s calls for talks to continue beyond the 60-day self-imposed deadline was a bad move.
“It is not a wise tactical manoeuvre in any negotiation to change the timeline, especially if the change of the timeline could lead to something which isn’t in your interests, and that’s the case for the US in these negotiations,” she explained.
“Iran’s interests [is] to really delay. The delay could see them moving their stocks of highly enriched uranium around the country.”
She said allowing negotiations to drag on could impact Australia. She warned the US and Gulf allies would be too distracted to contribute to ongoing global issues such as arms negotiations and to important economic summits like the G20 and ASEAN, of which Canberra plays a big part.
It’s in Iran’s interest to delay talks, Ms Hardy said. Picture: AFP
The ex-diplomat said a distracted West would bode well for China, North Korea and Russia. On-again, off-again openings of the Strait of Hormuz could also see the price of fuel hit a new, higher “floor” price.
“There is a lot of discussion about the energy outlook accelerating also for renewables, and China would be a major beneficiary, given it is now a world leader in technology and goods required for renewable energy,” she said.
‘It’s strategy 101’
Adding insult to injury, US allies in the Gulf like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being asked to stump up cash for a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, despite themselves having been hit by Iranian missiles.
Ms Hardy’s blunt criticisms didn’t stop there. She said she was “incredulous” US war planners didn’t factor in Iran blocking off the Strait of Hormuz in a conflict.
“I remember as a graduate trainee many years ago doing tabletop exercises with my defence colleagues. Guess what the first exercise was? The Strait of Hormuz. You know, it’s like strategy 101 in world history,” she said.
“What happens when you block the Strait of Hormuz? I just found it incredulous that this wasn’t better workshopped on the US side before they even went into this war.”
Ms Hardy said the US’ reputation as a stable ally has been “damaged” by the war with Iran, but that it is still too early to know if the wounds would be permanent.
Ms Hardy spent 33 years in Australia’s diplomatic corps. Picture: Supplied
Ms Hardy warned Iran would play tricks on US negotiators. Picture: Nathan Howard/Pool/AFP
For now, the US remained a military superpower, which she said allies should take comfort in. She said unlike other alliances around the world, the US-Australia pact meant Canberra would be allowed into discussions about negotiations.
“We will also be telling the Americans what we think is happening. They do listen to us, so it’s hugely in our interest to have both the alliance and a workable relationship moving forward in Washington,” she said.
Meanwhile, a major US think tank has declared China the biggest beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. In a recent report published by The Asia Group, the firm said the disruption to oil and commodity flows from the Middle East has hit Asian economies unevenly, but China has been better placed than most to weather the fallout.
It says Beijing’s diversified energy supplies and large emergency reserves have helped shield the world’s second-largest economy from the worst of the shock.
China has also benefited in other ways, with the report arguing the crisis has boosted exports of its clean energy technology while allowing Beijing to present itself as a more stable global power during the Iran conflict.
“Economically and geopolitically, Beijing is using the crisis to promote China as the stable partner of choice,” The Asia Group said.
“Beijing sees the crisis as the ultimate validation of its industrial self-reliance strategy.”