Area 51 watchers have had all their Christmases come at once, in the shape of … a Christmas tree.
A short video purports to show an unknown aircraft flying near the mysterious Groom Lake flight testing facility in Nevada, otherwise known as Area 51.
It’s blurry.
Possibly because of a combination of distance and the limited resolution of the thermal night vision camera used to capture it.
But the bundle of pixels claims to show what may be the United States secret Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) aircraft: The F-47.
That would be big. If true.
Surveillance cameras, sensors and crewed patrols surround Area 51. Almost all of the vantage points overlooking the vast weapons and aircraft testing range have been compulsorily purchased and deemed off-limits.
That’s because what goes on there is supposed to be secret.
The source of the footage, Project Fear, markets itself as a group of travelling “paranormal explorers”.
It’s not a sales pitch that would inspire confidence among aerospace engineers.
But its apparent authenticity in an era of easily generated AI deepfakes has been vouched for by the specialist media outlets The War Zone and The Aviationist.
Long-term Area 51 watcher Anders Otteson took to Reddit and told The War Zone that he had advised the YouTubers on what equipment to use, and where best to go, to catch a glimpse of what may be happening at Groom Lake.
“I posted about this because I noticed some people calling it fake due to coming from a ‘paranormal’ channel and wanted to clear that up. It is indeed real,” he posted to the subreddit.
The aircraft’s stark, cerated appearance also boosts its credibility.
It’s a near-perfect fit for what aviation analysts have gleaned about the top-secret $US5 billion project.
Blurry footage captured in the skies above America’s notorious Area 51 could reveal a huge, multibillion-dollar secret.
Secret, by design
“The image shows an exotic design by any interpretation,” TWZ’s analyst Thomas Newdick notes.
The main wing appears to be “cranked” – bent – to help provide directional stability in the absence of traditional (but highly visible to radar) tailfins. Very large forward triangular “canard” fins give the aircraft enhanced maneuverability. The arrow-shaped nose is broad. And the preponderance of angles is to deflect probing radar beams away from their receivers.
The “sawtooth” trailing edge is an indication that the rear of the aircraft is designed to house – and conceal the signature of – two engines.
Other details, such as overall size, are impossible to discern due to the lack of reference points in the footage and its low resolution.
But its general shape is more than a little reminiscent of Boeing demonstrator designs flown during the 1990s and early 2000s.
Two uncrewed X-36 prototypes were flown by Boeing’s experimental research Phantom Works unit for NASA in 1997.
This was a scaled-down “proof of concept” intended to demonstrate the practical feasibility of tailless designs for advanced combat aircraft.
It was reportedly an outstanding success.
The concept had also been explored by the Boeing X-45A Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle demonstrator, and the “Bird of Prey” single-seat stealth technology prototype.
What’s old is new again
Aerospace engineer Darold Cummings may have given us the best look yet at the future of US airpower last year.
The designer, who worked on projects including the F-22 Raptor Stealth Fighter and the X-37 B reusable spaceplane, posted a sketchy outline of a “Christmas Tree” stealth fighter he had developed in the 1980s.
He explained the jagged shape overcame problems with making a flying-wing design manoeuverable enough to be a fighter.
“The only way to accomplish this was with a series of highly swept (55 degree) surfaces over the entire length of the aircraft,” he wrote on LinkedIn.
“The result was the DP-21, created in June of 1983. Since I still did all my drawings in pencil, the only copy remaining is a ‘blueprint’, see below.
“Back in 1983, the ‘Christmas Tree’ DP-21 would have been difficult to fly. However, with modern flight control systems, this design could be controlled, even at high angle of attack,” Cummings told TWZ at the weekend.
This shape was also used in a recent marketing video by aircraft engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney, promoting how it designed a new engine for the future F-47.
Area 51 watchers have had all their Christmases come at once. Picture: iStock
So did the paranormal investigators capture the ghostly outline of a top-secret fighter jet?
“So, as it sits, it isn’t clear exactly what we are seeing, if indeed it is a real aircraft,” the TWZ’s Newdick concludes.
“But there are strong indications that this is our first glimpse of the winning NGAD entrant and a preview of what the F-47 will look like when it finally thunders out of the shadows.”
Sky domination
The US air force claims the F-47 will be the world’s first sixth-generation fighter.
Screen captures from a Pratt & Whitney engine promotional video appears to show an F-47 concept design that fits the ‘Christmas Tree’ configuration. Source: Pratt & Whitney
The Pentagon says it will include advanced stealth technology, new computer networking technology and a combat radius of 2000km. It will also fly at Mach 2 (2500km/h).
US air force and Boeing marketing campaigns have only offered tantalising glimpses of this $US5 billion project has to offer. But what we have seen indicates an X-36 and “Bird of Prey” lineage.
US air force purchasing processes generally require manufacturers to provide prototypes of future aircraft designs as technology demonstrators. These are put through their paces at remote facilities, such as Area 51, to prove their potential to live up to their glossy brochures.
That’s why one (or more) may be flying at Area 51.
The best prototype wins. Theoretically.
Boeing won that contest in 2025.
It cleverly gave its proposal the F-47 designation as an appeal to the vanity of the 47th President of the United States – Donald Trump.
It’s now finalising the design and preparing to put it into full-scale production.
Boeing named its aircraft after US President Donald Trump. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP
The first example of a production model is due to fly by 2028.
If all goes well.
The much-delayed F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter still hasn’t delivered on its operational requirements after 11 years of service and 30 years of development.
And the F-47 will be even more expensive than the F-35, which has been dubbed “the most expensive defence project ever”.
This may be why the United States air force plans to buy only 185 of them. The mainstay of its interceptor force will remain the 1970s-era F-15 Eagle fighter, with 267 of the updated EX Eagle II version now on order.
Meanwhile, China is storming ahead with a slew of new tailless stealth fighter and drone designs. Many of these are already flying.
Europe, however, has just abandoned yet another attempt to jointly develop its own sixth-generation fighter, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS). France and Germany could not agree on how to proceed with the work.