One Nation’s thumping victory in the Perth state electorate of Secret Harbour over the weekend should set off alarm bells for Labor in Victoria where the upset could be repeated “a dozen times over”, a leading pollster says.
The right-wing party — which officially reclaimed its most popular spot in Monday’s Newspoll — won a seat from Labor for the first time with a massive 17.5 per cent swing in Saturday’s WA state by-election in the outer-Perth electorate.
In claiming victory, One Nation’s Luke Herdegen said the voters had “sent a message that will send shockwaves around the country”.
“No seat is safe from the orange tsunami,” he said.
RedBridge director and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras said Saturday’s rebuke of the Cook government came despite WA Labor facing nothing like the headwinds facing its Victorian counterpart.
“The result should worry Labor in Perth’s outer suburbs,” Mr Samaras wrote.
One Nation’s Luke Herdegen celebrates after claiming victory. Picture: Paul Garvey
“It should worry Victorian Labor more. Unless something changes, a swag of Melbourne seats with the same profile as Secret Harbour will go the same way.”
The pollster said Secret Harbour was outer urban but not diverse, ranking fourth out of 59 electorates for British or Australian ancestry, with just under 30 per cent born overseas and those overwhelmingly from England, New Zealand and South Africa.
Chinese and Indian ancestry are under 1 per cent each.
“It is a seat of young working families, far more vocational qualifications than degrees, and average incomes despite high workforce participation,” Mr Samaras wrote.
“Mortgage belt, trades, coastal, Anglo. That is the seat One Nation just took off a popular third-term government.”
In Melbourne, that splits the outer ring into two very different contests — the “diverse growth corridors” of the west and north, and the south east around Dandenong and Narre Warren, versus the outer and peri-urban seats where “that diversity is thin”.
“Given the current mood towards Labor in Victoria, we can almost safely call them lost,” Mr Samaras wrote.
Redbridge director Kos Samaras. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire
“Those seats are recognisable. Along the bay and the Peninsula: Frankston and Carrum. At the Anglo end of the south east corridor rather than the Dandenong end: Pakenham and Bass.
“Furthermore, beyond the metropolitan boundary in seats that share Secret Harbour’s mix of tradies, young families and long commutes: Lara and Bellarine around Geelong, Eureka and Wendouree in Ballarat, Bendigo East and Bendigo West, and Macedon.
“Cranbourne is the seat to watch, because it sits across both categories. Its northern end is diverse and behaves like Narre Warren. Its southern estates towards Clyde and Cranbourne East look like Secret Harbour. On the numbers it reads as more insulated than Pakenham or Bass. On the ground, that insulation is concentrated in one half of the seat, and the other half is exactly the territory One Nation just won in Perth.
“These are seats Labor has treated as heartland for a generation. Secret Harbour was heartland too.”
Speaking to news.com.au on Monday, Mr Samaras said a number of NSW Labor electorates were facing the Secret Harbour treatment in outer western Sydney and up through the Hunter and Central Coast.
Seats like Frankston are almost certainly lost to One Nation. Picture: Supplied
“It’s Cessnock, it’s Penrith, it’s Camden,” he said. “You could probably see half a dozen seats where Labor will be under pressure from One Nation.”
However, there were “countless” more Liberal and Nationals seats facing a One Nation wipeout.
“There will be an outsized impact on the Nats and Libs in rural and regional NSW because of just how poorly the NSW Coalition is travelling,” Mr Samaras said.
He added he was not surprised by Saturday’s result, saying it was “absolute prime territory for One Nation”.
“Outer suburb, higher levels of TAFE and vocational qualifications, it’s the second least diverse electorate in the entire state,” he said.
“[Even though] the Cook government is not unpopular and the WA economy is travelling better than anywhere else … clearly that didn’t matter.”
It comes as One Nation edges past Labor to reclaim its title as the most popular party in Australia, despite Anthony Albanese holding his lead over Pauline Hanson as preferred prime minister.
The latest Newspoll conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights for The Australian showed One Nation climbing by 1 percentage point to hold 30 per cent of the primary vote, edging past Labor at 29 per cent, while the Coalition trailed behind at 19 per cent.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson with Luke Herdegen, right. Picture: Philip Gostelow/NewsWire
The survey of 1243 voters was held in the five days leading up to One Nation’s historic win at the Secret Harbour by-election and captured a period of internal confusion in the populist party over its net overseas migration target.
But in a three-way contest, Mr Albanese held onto his lead as preferred leader with 46 per cent of support, followed by Senator Hanson on 31 per cent and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor on 23 per cent.
After preferences were distributed between the Labor and One Nation leaders, Mr Albanese sustained this lead with a margin of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
Speaking to supporters on Saturday, Mr Herdegen said the political landscape in WA had been changed forever.
“There are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country anymore,” he said.
“[The voters have] certainly sent a message I think to Canberra as well, and to Anthony Albanese, that they’re unhappy.”
Meanwhile Senator Hanson said she was thrilled with the result.
“This is a clear message to Anthony Albanese,” she said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Brisbane. Picture: Tertius Pickard/NewsWire
“People are turning to One Nation hoping, and it’s all about hope. They want hope. We’re really out there winning seats.
“They’re wanting someone who’s really going to listen to them and really go out and fight for them to change the direction this country is going in.
“And I give them my solemn oath I’m trying to get the right people on the floor of parliament to do that for the Australian people, to give them back our country that’s been stripped away from us every which way.”
In a National Press Club address in June, Pauline Hanson outlined party policies such as winding back paid parental leave – which she later walked back – cutting worker entitlements, and rejecting the policy of multiculturalism.
A month later, she labelled domestic violence a “two-way street” and urged women “not to put up with it”.
On Sunday, the Prime Minister declared that Australians “owe it to history” to defeat One Nation in a scathing attack on the party’s credibility among voters.
Addressing the Labor Queensland conference on Sunday, Mr Albanese warned that Senator Hanson’s party would say “anything” to win votes, including bending facts and turning “Australian against Australian”.
He also said Labor has a duty to defeat One Nation.
“Across the world, hard-right populists are on the march. Peddling politics that is dangerous, divisive and downright dishonest,” Mr Albanese said.
