Pauline Hanson is facing an uphill battle, after recent polls indicated a sharp decline for the One Nation leader.
The latest polling has re-crowned the Labor Party as the most popular party in the country following Ms Hanson’s push for “monoculture”.
Sky News Pulse revealed One Nation has dropped four points to 26 per cent, while Labor returned to the top of the primary vote on 28 per cent.
Despite One Nation’s slide, the party maintains a comfortable lead over the Coalition on 20 per cent (up three points).
The Greens received 12 per cent of the vote while the new teal party, Community Strong Australia, recorded just 2 per cent of the vote in its first appearance in the poll.
One political expert believes Ms Hanson’s support has “hit a ceiling” as the embattled politician struggles to infiltrate the 30 per cent mark.
Ms Hanson has been here before – in 1998 – when John Howard took down One Nation by shifting the focus towards the economy.
Mr Howard turned his campaign into a referendum on tax reform, denying Ms Hanson a platform on her subjects of race and monoculturalism.
It was a last-minute shift to combat the rising party, but one that was ultimately successful in holding them off and repairing the health of Australia’s economy.
Pauline Hanson faces a challenge as her support begins to dwindle. Picture: Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images
In the wake of the Bondi terror attack, further fuelled by budget woes and the climbing cost-of-living, support surged for Ms Hanson and the party as the Coalition struggled.
According to Josh Sunman, Associate Lecturer in Public Policy at Flinders University, there are three key factors that explain Ms Hanson’s decline in support.
These are, Ms Hanson’s first time speaking at the National Press Club, the government’s smooth recovery from its controversial budget, and the embracing of UK anti-Islam activist, Tommy Robinson.
“15 to 20 per cent of the population perhaps agree with Pauline Hanson’s attitudes on multiculturalism and immigration,” Prof Sunman told news.com.au.
“She’s then tapped into another segment of 10 to 15 per cent of people who maybe don’t agree with her on everything but are unsatisfied with the status quo.
“She runs the risk of losing them if she leans into people like Tommy Robinson.”
Pauline Hanson is seen embracing controversial far-right UK activist Tommy Robinson. Picture: X
Press club-gate
Ms Hanson’s 51-minute inaugural National Press Club address left voters without clarity on the party’s stance in terms of economic and working policies.
“It’s off-putting to the second part of her voters,” said Prof Sunman.
“There’s a core of coalition support that she has managed to capture, but when she’s in working class communities and trying to claim traditional Labor voters, they may be alienated by her positions on working conditions.”
During her press club speech, Ms Hanson called for a “complete overhaul” of industrial relations laws, claiming businesses have “had enough.”
“Industrial relations, I can assure you, needs a complete overhaul, because it’s not working. Businesses also tell me you can’t sack people these days,” she said.
Pauline Hanson is shown around the UK by Tommy Robinson as they discussed the demographic of the area and spoke to locals. Picture: UTK
“[Workers are] on their phones, they don’t work, they don’t turn up, they actually are lazy, and businesses are tied to it. They’ve had enough.”
During the speech, Ms Hanson also declared it was “fair enough” if women were not paid when they took maternity leave, asking: “Why should businesses not pay them if they are not at work?”
She has since walked back these comments, claiming it was “taken out of context”.
Australia’s anti-establishment shift
Prof Sunman believes the shift towards One Nation is largely a product of the collapse of the Coalition, and a more general global anti-establishment movement.
“Australia’s support has been drifting away from traditional systems, they’re looking for anti-system alternatives,” he said.
This is evident in polling that suggests Australians are rejecting some of One Nation’s key policies,
A Guardian Essential Poll earlier this month indicated only 20 per cent of respondents supported ending Australia’s support of multiculturalism and an even lower 18 per cent favoured strengthening industrial laws in favour of employers at the expense of workers.
Only 15 per cent supported Hanson’s call to defund the ABC and just 11 per cent supported her plan to abolish SBS.
Ms Hanson has been close to glory before, but was ultimately smacked down by traditional parties. Picture: NewsWire Handout
Hanson’s biggest ‘risk’
Pauline Hanson’s Press Club address marked a sign of legitimacy for her, where she was afforded a chance to be taken seriously by the Australian media and her constituents.
However, Prof Sunman believes Ms Hanson’s increasing legitimacy is a huge “risk” for her, as she moves to enter the political establishment she staunchly fights against.
“In terms of professionalism, they’ve upped their game. Their vetting has improved, their messaging has gotten stronger,” he said.
Historically, populist leaders tend to build support by positioning themselves as a voice for the people, fighting against a common enemy – the elitist institution.
If Ms Hanson was to continue gaining real power, she would be forced to operate within Australia’s democratic guidelines, meaning she will have to make compromises, rely on bureaucracies, and negotiate with the wider system.
“Pauline Hanson is the party and the brand,” said Prof Sunman.
“Without her, you don’t have that connection to the electorate. If Pauline was going to leave tomorrow, what would happen?”
