New poll reveals why One Nation is soaring

The Freshwater poll, published in the Herald Sun on Wednesday, showed concerns over immigration and crime were fuelling the surge in support for the minor party.

Cost and standard of living remained on top, picked by 66 per cent of voters the most important issue for the federal government to focus on, followed by housing and accommodation on 38 per cent.

But nearly one third were concerned about crime and social order, while 27 per cent were concerned by immigration and asylum, according to the poll of 1050 voters.

Around two thirds of voters said Australia’s current immigration levels are too high.

The poll put One Nation’s primary vote at 19 per cent, up 13 points since the May 2025 federal election, while Senator Hanson had a net favourability rating of plus 6 per cent, compared with minus 9 per cent for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and minus 5 per cent for Opposition leader Sussan Ley.

“We’ve definitely seen an increase generally in the rise of immigration as an issue and we also see crime quite high on the issue agenda,” Freshwater Strategy head of research Jordan Meyers told the Herald Sun.

One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

“These really are two of the key issues that One Nation have focused on historically and Pauline Hanson’s been very active post events in Bondi in December last year, so that’s definitely led to a boost in their support as a party.”

The latest findings come after a shock Newspoll, published in The Australian on Monday, showed One Nation overtaking the Coalition with a primary vote of 22 per cent — up seven points over the past two months.

The Coalition’s primary vote has dropped three points to a record low of 21 per cent, while Labor fell four points to 32 per cent, according to the first Newspoll of the year which surveyed 1224 voters between Monday and Thursday last week.

It’s the first time in Australia’s history that a minor party has polled higher than one of the major parties. The combined primary vote for the Coalition is now a record low of 53 per cent, with 47 per cent of Australians now backing One Nation, the Greens, independents and other minor parties.

Voters are increasingly concerned about immigration. Picture: Nikki Short/NewsWire

Labor’s two-party preferred lead over the Coalition has fallen back to 55-45, mirroring the results of last May’s election.

An earlier DemosAU poll, published on January 8, put One Nation and the Coalition tied on a primary vote of 23 per cent, with Labor on 29 per cent — a swing of 16.6 per cent to One Nation since the election.

While the DemosAU poll of 1027 voters suggested a two-party-preferred lead to Labor of 52-48 against the Coalition, its analysis suggested Labor and One Nation would be tied at 50-50 in a two-party-preferred match-up.

This is because Coalition preference flows to One Nation are stronger than One Nation preference flows to the Coalition, according to DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos.

“Australia is now on the cusp of following several European countries where a far-right populist party is now challenging for government in the polls,’’ he said in a statement.

“It’s not that shocking when you see other polls, for example, in the United Kingdom, showing a Reform Party lead over a first term UK Labour government.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Picture: Darren Staples/AFP

DemosAU’s survey showed nearly one in three (31 per cent) 2025 Coalition voters had switched to One Nation, as well as 11 per cent of Labor voters.

Mr Hasanakos said the Bondi attacks had put the leadership qualities of both the Prime Minister and Opposition leader to the test.

“The recent terrorist attack in Bondi has shocked the nation and put issues such as national security, anti-Semitism, immigration and community cohesion firmly in the spotlight,” he said.

“With the rising support of One Nation before this event, it makes this fertile ground for a longstanding anti-immigration voice in Ms Hanson to gain further support. Combine this with the electorate’s increasing frustration over the rising cost of living, it’s no surprise that many Australians are looking for alternatives.”

Speaking about the stunning Newspoll result on Monday, Senator Hanson declared she was ready to fight for a future as an alternative government, despite currently holding no seats in the House of Representatives.

“I think what Australia is lacking now with both the major political parties is leadership,” she told reporters.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

“People are fed up, they’ve had enough. They’re struggling with the cost of living. I’m not just here to prop up the Coalition or the Labor Party or anyone else. I have put out clear policies now for three decades.”

Senator Hanson added “we need to fight for this country, our cultural identity, who we are as Australians”.

“It is not racism to call out or criticise policy which the both major political parties have tried to advocate,” she added.

The veteran Senator, who was first elected to parliament 30 years ago and remains temporarily banned from the Senate for wearing a burqa to the chamber last year, said the December 14 Bondi massacre by alleged Islamic extremists was a wake-up call over mass migration.

“Do you think it was by chance?’’ she said.

“It is about Islam. It is about the people that we brought into the country. They’re not people compatible and suitable for this country. Why do we now have to turn around, make laws to start reining them in. Why don’t we look at these people before we allow them into our country? That’s what we’ve got to start questioning.”

Alleged Bondi terrorist Naveed Akram. Picture: Sky News

The Prime Minister, speaking to KISS FM, declared the poll “a worry because they can appeal to grievances, but they’re a pretty divisive lot”.

“We do see a rise in populism of a right-wing variety that can often cause considerable division,” he said.

“And I think it’s a worry. I’m a believer in mainstream politics, and that the parties of government are important. It’s served this country pretty well.”

Senator Hanson hit back at Mr Albanese’s comments on Sky News on Monday evening.

“What a hypocrite he is,” she said.

“I’ve got no time for him. The worst Prime Minister of this country has ever had.”

The One Nation leader added that Mr Albanese’s claim that she was divisive was “a pot calling the kettle black”.

Senator Hanson pointed to his attempts to introduce the Voice to Parliament in 2023 and his apparent lack of action on anti-Semitism.

She closed the interview with a warning to Ms Ley over Labor’s hate speech and gun laws, which passed through parliament on Tuesday night following an extraordinary two-day sitting, despite a number of Coalition defections.

“One Nation voted against both bills in protest against this rushed, dog’s breakfast,” Ms Hanson wrote on X after the 38-22 Senate vote.